NFL & NCAA Football Points Spread to Win Odds Conversion Table

nfl points spread conversion table win odds implied probabilities

If you’re a bettor on NFL or NCAA college football, you’ve probably considered how to convert points spreads to win probabilities.

For example…

  • If an NFL team is a 3-point favorite, how often are they expected to win the game outright?
  • If an NCAA college football team is a 10-point underdog, how often are they likely to pull off the upset?

Implied win probabilities feed into other types of betting odds or you may just be curious, so having some handy conversion tables is good to get a feel.

In the tables below, we have NFL and NCAA points spreads to win odd conversions.

Also, at the bottom, we have a moneyline breakeven chart.

If you find this page helpful, feel free to bookmark it for easy future reference.


NFL points spread to win probability odds conversion table

Point Spread Favorite Win Chance Underdog Win Chance
0 50.0% 50.0%
0.5 50.6% 49.4%
1 51.3% 48.8%
1.5 52.5% 47.5%
2 53.5% 46.5%
2.5 54.5% 45.5%
3 59.4% 40.6%
3.5 64.3% 35.7%
4 65.8% 34.2%
4.5 67.3% 32.7%
5 68.1% 31.9%
5.5 69.0% 31.1%
6 70.7% 29.4%
6.5 72.4% 27.7%
7 75.2% 24.8%
7.5 78.1% 21.9%
8 79.1% 20.9%
8.5 80.2% 19.8%
9 80.7% 19.3%
9.5 81.1% 18.9%
10 83.6% 16.4%
10.5 86.0% 14.0%
11 87.1% 12.9%
11.5 88.2% 11.8%
12 88.5% 11.6%
12.5 88.7% 11.3%
13 89.3% 10.7%
13.5 90.0% 10.0%
14 92.4% 7.6%
14.5 94.9% 5.1%
15 95.6% 4.4%
15.5 96.3% 3.7%
16 98.1% 1.9%
16.5 99.8% 0.2%
17+ 100% 0%

NCAA college football points spread to win probability odds conversion table

Point Spread Favorite Win% Underdog Win %
0 50.0% 50.0%
1 51.3% 48.7%
1.5 52.6% 47.4%
2 53.5% 46.5%
2.5 54.3% 45.7%
3 57.5% 42.5%
3.5 60.7% 39.3%
4 62.0% 38.0%
4.5 63.2% 36.8%
5 64.2% 35.8%
5.5 65.2% 34.8%
6 66.5% 33.5%
6.5 67.8% 32.2%
7 70.4% 29.6%
7.5 73.1% 26.9%
8 73.9% 26.1%
8.5 74.7% 25.3%
9 75.1% 24.9%
9.5 75.6% 24.4%
10 77.5% 22.5%
10.5 79.3% 20.7%
11 80.0% 20.0%
11.5 80.7% 19.3%
12 81.7% 18.3%
12.5 82.7% 17.3%
13 83.1% 16.9%
13.5 83.6% 16.4%
14 85.2% 14.8%
14.5 86.9% 13.1%
15 87.5% 12.5%
15.5 88.1% 11.9%
16 88.6% 11.4%
16.5 89.1% 10.9%
17 91.5% 8.5%
17.5 93.8% 6.2%
18 95.0% 5.0%
18.5 96.3% 3.7%
19 97.4% 2.6%
19.5 98.5% 1.5%
20 + 100% 0.0%

Moneyline breakeven table

The general formulas are:

Favorites

Line / (Line – 100)

Example

-1200 Favorite

-1200 / (-1200 – 100) = 0.923

= 92.3% Favorite

Underdogs

100 / (Line + 100)

Example

+1200 Underdog

100 / (1200 + 100) = 0.077

= 7.7% Underdog


Favorites Underdogs
Line Win % (implied probabilities) Line Win % (implied probabilities)
-1200 92.30% 1200 7.70%
-1100 91.66% 1100 8.34%
-1000 90.91% 1000 9.09%
-900 90.00% 900 10.00%
-800 88.88% 800 11.12%
-750 88.23% 750 11.77%
-700 87.50% 700 12.50%
-650 86.66% 650 13.34%
-600 85.71% 600 14.29%
-575 85.18% 575 14.82%
-550 84.61% 550 15.39%
-525 84.00% 525 16.00%
-500 83.33% 500 16.67%
-480 82.75% 480 17.25%
-460 82.14% 460 17.86%
-450 81.81% 450 18.19%
-440 81.48% 440 18.52%
-430 81.13% 430 18.87%
-420 80.76% 420 19.24%
-410 80.39% 410 19.61%
-400 80.00% 400 20.00%
-395 79.79% 395 20.21%
-390 79.59% 390 20.41%
-385 79.38% 385 20.62%
-380 79.16% 380 20.84%
-375 78.94% 375 21.06%
-370 78.72% 370 21.28%
-365 78.49% 365 21.51%
-360 78.26% 360 21.74%
-355 78.02% 355 21.98%
-350 77.77% 350 22.23%
-345 77.52% 345 22.48%
-340 77.27% 340 22.73%
-335 77.01% 335 22.99%
-330 76.74% 330 23.26%
-325 76.47% 325 23.53%
-320 76.19% 320 23.81%
-315 75.90% 315 24.10%
-310 75.60% 310 24.40%
-305 75.30% 305 24.70%
-300 75% 300 25%
-295 74.68% 295 25.32%
-290 74.35% 290 25.65%
-285 74.02% 285 25.98%
-280 73.68% 280 26.32%
-275 73.33% 275 26.67%
-270 72.97% 270 27.03%
-265 72.60% 265 27.40%
-260 72.22% 260 27.78%
-255 71.83% 255 28.17%
-250 71.42% 250 28.58%
-245 71.01% 245 28.99%
-240 70.58% 240 29.42%
-235 70.14% 235 29.86%
-230 69.69% 230 30.31%
-225 69.23% 225 30.77%
-220 68.75% 220 31.25%
-215 68.25% 215 31.75%
-210 67.74% 210 32.26%
-205 67.21% 205 32.79%
-200 66.66% 200 33.34%
-195 66.10% 195 33.90%
-190 65.51% 190 34.49%
-185 64.91% 185 35.09%
-180 64.28% 180 35.72%
-175 63.63% 175 36.37%
-170 62.96% 170 37.04%
-165 62.26% 165 37.74%
-160 61.53% 160 38.47%
-155 60.78% 155 39.22%
-150 60% 150 40%
-145 59.18% 145 40.82%
-140 58.33% 140 41.67%
-135 57.44% 135 42.56%
-130 56.52% 130 43.48%
-125 55.55% 125 44.45%
-120 54.54% 120 45.46%
-115 53.48% 115 46.52%
-110 52.38% 110 47.62%
-105 51.21% 105 48.79%
-100 50% 100 50%

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